September 1, 2016
2·6 billion people in Africa and Asia-Pacific regions suitable for transmission of Zika virus
Bogoch et al, including Kraemer and Hay from the SEEG group, have published Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study in Lancet Infectious Diseases.
As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus.
The model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission.
An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika virus-affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include India, China, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand.
Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic, and social consequences of Zika virus, especially in resource-limited countries.