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January 3, 2017
Spread of yellow fever outbreak and vaccination area estimates

Kraemer at al have published Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015-16: a modelling study in Lancet Infectious Diseases. 

The paper seeks to understand the spatial spread of the yellow fever outbreak since late 2015 in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, in order to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock.

The authors analysed datasets describing the epidemic of yellow fever, vector suitability, human demography, and mobility in central Africa to understand and predict the spread of yellow fever virus. They used a standard logistic model to infer the district-specific yellow fever virus infection risk during the course of the epidemic in the region.

Their findings show the contributions of ecological and demographic factors to the ongoing spread of the yellow fever outbreak and provide estimates of the areas that could be prioritised for vaccination, although other constraints such as vaccine supply and delivery need to be accounted for before such insights can be translated into policy.