skip to content


June 17, 2014
Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 - new paper

A new paper has been published today, Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia by Marius Gilbert et al in Nature Communications.

Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it.

Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we developed a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. 

The paper's findings are reported by the BBC News item, Bird flu 'danger zones' mapped.