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Dengue

Dengue is currently the most important mosquito‐borne viral pathogen affecting humans, and the disease is emerging as a major threat to global health, being reported in over 100 countries. Many clinically apparent cases remain undetected by the hospital‐based surveillance systems conventionally relied upon for disease reporting, so our goal is to model the true risk and burden of dengue globally using cartographic approaches.

We recently estimated that there are 390 million dengue infections across the globe each year, of which 96 million reach any level of clinical or subclinical severity. We also plan to project risk and burden into the year 2080 given global environmental and demographic change. With endemic transmission in Asia and the Americas, recent outbreaks in Portugal, and the increasing incidence in Africa, the challenges of making an effective dengue vaccine or controlling the vector are increasingly important. We hope our research will help guide vaccine, drug, and vector control efforts.

Current projects

IDAMS
International Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment, Management and Surveillance

September 2011 - August 2016

Dengue is an emerging disease of major global significance and represents an enormous burden for health care systems in endemic countries. Our group has several members (Simon HayJane MessinaAndrew Farlow and Maria Devine) that make up one working package in the EC-funded International Consortium on Dengue Assessment, Management, and Surveillance (IDAMS). In the IDAMS project, international experts work together to develop new and innovative tools to be applied to the control of dengue in a global context. The main aims of the consortium are to improve diagnosis and clinical management of dengue, assess the risk of dengue spread through mapping and modelling techniques, define the current extent of dengue disease globally, evaluate possible scenarios of spread or risk to previously uninfected regions in the future, and develop effective and affordable early warning and outbreak response systems.

Our working group focuses specifically on the mapping and modelling of risk and burden for dengue. We recently derived improved estimates of global burden of the disease, and are currently working towards mapping global dengue risk into the year 2080 given global environmental and demographic change. Specifically, we are interested in mapping and quantifying the potential future risk that dengue poses to Europe as called for by the European Commission. Given the 2012 dengue outbreak in Madeira, Portugal, this endeavour becomes an increasingly important public health priority.

Dengue is an emerging disease of major global significance and represents an enormous burden for health care systems in endemic countries. Our group has several members (Simon HayJane MessinaAndrew Farlow and Maria Devine) that make up one working package in the EC-funded International Consortium on Dengue Assessment, Management, and Surveillance (IDAMS). In the IDAMS project, international experts work together to develop new and innovative tools to be applied to the control of dengue in a global context. The main aims of the consortium are to improve diagnosis and clinical management of dengue, assess the risk of dengue spread through mapping and modelling techniques, define the current extent of dengue disease globally, evaluate possible scenarios of spread or risk to previously uninfected regions in the future, and develop effective and affordable early warning and outbreak response systems.

Our working group focuses specifically on the mapping and modelling of risk and burden for dengue. We recently derived improved estimates of global burden of the disease, and are currently working towards mapping global dengue risk into the year 2080 given global environmental and demographic change. Specifically, we are interested in mapping and quantifying the potential future risk that dengue poses to Europe as called for by the European Commission. Given the 2012 dengue outbreak in Madeira, Portugal, this endeavour becomes an increasingly important public health priority.

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Dengue is an emerging disease of major global significance and represents an enormous burden for health care systems in endemic countries. Our group has several members (Simon Hay, Jane Messina, Andrew Farlow and Maria Devine) that...

Read more

BBSRC DPhil studentship
Improving global strategies for dengue surveillance and control

October 2011 - September 2015

Despite dengue's considerable global burden and growing global importance, many aspects of its international surveillance and control remain underdeveloped compared to other prominent tropical diseases.

The aim of Oliver Brady's project is to identify current gaps in international dengue surveillance and to use combined mapping and modelling approaches to suggest new ways in which both surveillance and control could be stratified. As part of this, the project will investigate global dengue reporting, endemicity and outbreak response which will allow transmission-intensity specific guidelines, improved strategies to limit the spread and intensification of dengue, and new strategy options to reduce disease burden.

Despite dengue's considerable global burden and growing global importance, many aspects of its international surveillance and control remain underdeveloped compared to other prominent tropical diseases.

The aim of Oliver Brady's project is to identify current gaps in international dengue surveillance and to use combined mapping and modelling approaches to suggest new ways in which both surveillance and control could be stratified. As part of this, the project will investigate global dengue reporting, endemicity and outbreak response which will allow transmission-intensity specific guidelines, improved strategies to limit the spread and intensification of dengue, and new strategy options to reduce disease burden.

Read less

Despite dengue's considerable global burden and growing global importance, many aspects of its international surveillance and control remain underdeveloped compared to other prominent tropical diseases. The aim of Oliver Brady's project...

Read more